In Canada there is a nascent separatist movement brewing. It consists of mostly conservative, mostly Albertans, imagining ways to skirt their mostly unfair tax obligations to a federal government which mostly despises them. At the current moment their facebook groups have well over 100,000 members. Given the fringe nature of the idea, this is nothing to sneeze at.
The impossibility of an island
Obviously western separation will never work. The idea is to have some or all of the Western provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba) separate from Canada to form a new National entity, potentially directly or indirectly connected to the US. This plan is not in the interest of the rest of the Canadian provinces, and is barely in the interest of the provinces who would presumably succeed.
Aside from the massive set of logistical issues which would arise from the succession of the Canadian West (currency, borders, military, trade agreements, system of government, constituencies, parliament, senate, Lloydminster?) there are problems of basic geography and demography. This new country would almost certainly be land locked. British Columbia sits on the way to the ocean, and British Columbia is politically controlled by its major population centre, Vancouver, which in turn hates Alberta, and Albertans.
To the North, this would be nation is surrounded by vast territories controlled by the crown. Those territories stand to gain little by joining the prairie provinces in separation. To the south, Americas willingness to deal with a new nation in the north would depend greatly on who happened to be in the big chair at any given time. Blue Prom Queen or Red Prom Queen? Blue Prom Queen would almost certainly denounce the new hayseed nation and refuse to trade with it. Red Prom Queen would potentially accept Hayseedia as a vassal state, assuming the discount on commodities were large enough. Considering Alberta already sells oil to America at a significant discount to market rate because of these same geographic and demographic realities, it is hard to imagine a political reorganization which makes Alberta more dependant on America as being strategically advantageous to its citizens.
No, the smug scoffs the western separatists receive from the Laurentians when they present this idea are, in fact, well earned. Western separation would never and could never work. The root of the failure of this idea is not that it is too big to work. The problem is that it is not big enough. Alberta could never separate from Canada, but it could easily expand. If Alberta can expand to Moose Jaw, it could probably expand to Winnipeg. There isn’t much to resist expansion between Winnipeg and Sudbury. And once you reach Sudbury, you’re knocking on the door of Ottawa.
Western separation is a plan for the western provinces to stop losing so badly to the Laurentians. Western expansion is a plan for the Hayseeds to beat the Laurentians. Expansion is a plan to win.
All the world is a stage
In order to understand the players in this game and their motivations it is necessary to sketch the basic political field. First, Canada is a young country, born of a tenuous political partnership between competing British and French interests. The British are the senior partners, and they purchase political fealty of the French interests (a culturally distinct, ethnically homogenous voting block) with bribes. The British interests get the money to bribe the French interests by stealing it from their colonies and territories in the northern and western parts of the country. The French interests hold a strong hand, and use it to drive a hard bargain. If the payments dry up, the French interests threaten to withhold their support for the British interests, and dissolve the country: see examples in the 60’s/70’s and 90’s. Officially, the payments made by the British to the French are called Equalization payments. These bribes have been a condition of confederation since 1867.
This arrangement, where the British steal from the hayseeds to pay to keep the French unhappily in their position as Jr. partner in the national arrangement, has been skillfully maintained for 150 years. Few people outside of Canadian political dynasties and probably CSIS understand how delicate the underlying bonds of Canadian Confederation are. Unfortunately for the Laurentians, the excellence of their own public school system and the ready availability of open information and high speed internet connections has meant that the Hayseeds in the west have finally learned how to read. Like any vain, post modern individual, the first thing the hayseeds seem to have googled is their own name, and in doing so, have figured out taxes in Canada have been designed from the beginning to transfer wealth from west to east. Woops.
In this Canadian version of Game of Thrones there are three main characters. The French, consisting of Quebec and the majority of the Atlantic provinces. The British, consisting of the major population centres of Ontario, namely Toronto and Ottawa, with some small outposts in Montreal, St. John, and Halifax, and possibly Calgary. Then third there is “The West”, which means literally everything west of Ottawa. Mostly this means hayseeds. This group is inclusive of first nations groups, who are themselves also hayseeds. (One great way to figure out if you are a part of a hayseed group is by asking the question: Do you now or would you like to in the future own a quad? If the answer for you or any of your neighbours is yes, you are a hayseed.) The Hayseed capital in Canada is Alberta. By virtue of its vast natural resources, plentiful middle class jobs, and tremendous strength of character, Alberta has been a vacuum sucking the heartiest hayseeds and saltiest salt of the earth Canadians to it for decades. The interests of Alberta are essentially the interests of the West, and as such, Alberta is the hero of our story.
There is, in fact, a fourth player in Canada called Vancouver. Vancouverites are not Canadian. They are spiritually and often literally Californian. If Alberta ever succeeds in expanding into Ottawa, the first thing it should do as federal leader, is to gift Vancouver back to California. All parties will be the better for it.
It is Better to Give than Receive
The basic idea behind the Western Separatist movement is that, having had a look at the books, Alberta would like to quit Canada. This is a natural reaction for anyone finding out they have been betrayed, tricked, and used. Unfortunately, in order for Alberta to quit, it functionally has to fire the French, and anyone else who Ottawa has decided to bribe with Alberta’s money. For the most part, the actual recipients of western money, like nurses and school teachers in Val-d’Or, have nothing to do with this betrayal.
From their perspective, the French made a fair deal with the British. If the west feels that the British have stolen from them, they should take the money back from the British, not from the French. Besides that, the French have, if anything, been underpaid for their part in bestowing upon the British control of a vast, beautiful nation, filled with dazzling natural wealth.
The argument here is ironclad. The west can never reverse its own alienation by causing the alienation of others. The contract at the heart of Canadian confederation must continue to be honoured, or Canada will collapse. The balkanization of Canada does not serve the interests of Alberta. Her power lies in bringing goods to the world. For that she needs the St. Lawrence.
The issue, really, is not that Quebec is paid off for its role in keeping the nation together. The issue is that the benefit accrues to the British, though it is in fact the hayseeds who sign the cheques. Alberta cannot reasonably quit this relationship without hurting herself in the process. But she can change the name on the masthead.
The Gentle Way
Essentially, what this means is that rather than ending equalization payments, as the western separatist movement aims to do, Alberta needs to voluntarily increase them. The hayseed is the underdog in this competition, and so should look to compete using the techniques which advantage underdogs. Enter Judo. Literally “gentle way”.
The two primary principles of Judo are Seiryoku-Zenyo “maximum efficient use of energy” and Jita-Kyoei “mutual welfare and benefit”. Or, to reference a less ancient tradition, Alberta should use the Microsoft Way of dealing with competition: embrace, extend, and extinguish.
If Alberta is able to come to Jesus and find ways to, rather than (correctly) decrying the unfair nature of paying taxes to a corrupt and ungrateful sovereign, increase its own tax burden to fund targeted, altruistic, efficient interventions outside its own borders, it will have unlocked the key to outcompeting its primary adversary: Ottawa.
Embracing and extending Ottawa’s mandate of western taxation for the good of the country, Alberta could begin to offer services to municipalities and other entities outside of its jurisdiction. God knows they could use the help. Saskatchewan and Manitoba both have been historically underfunded by Ottawa. As a result, their infrastructure is crumbling. In Canada, there is a shockingly high number of towns without roads. This is to say nothing the many many under equipped first nations reserves in rural western Canada, where boil water notices are a permanent fixture, and many young people die on under-lit, dangerous roadways. Perhaps there is a way for Alberta to send its oil money directly to these people and causes, without first being directed through Ottawa?
Seiryoku-Zenyo, Maximum Efficiency
If there is an english language equivalent for Seiryoku-Zenyo when it comes to statecraft in the 21st century, the word would be competency.
Alberta, its citizens having being largely trained by the most effective industrial organizations (Halliburton, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon/Imperial) in the history of the world, currently maintains one of the greatest gaps in competency between two opponents, maybe ever. Alberta’s opponent, Ottawa, having been trained by perhaps the least competent organizations in history, the contemporary western university system (Gender Studies, Communications, Cultural Studies), is ripe for the most egregious PWNing in political history. Can you see the clickbait youtube titles now? WATCH: Alberta DESTROYS poverty in EPIC rural building boom or Ottawa Attempts to Fund Infrastructure Bill - Immediately Regrets it.
Alberta already maintains and clears its own roadways in the winter time. What neighbouring jurisdiction would reasonably refuse to allow the Albertan government to fix the potholes on their side of the border? If Alberta wanted to build a new major highway from Grande Prairie to Fort Severn on the shores of Hudsons Bay, who would refuse? Of course Alberta would pay, and in fact, as a token of their gratitude Alberta would be happy to offer to bring natural gas to bring heat and electricity to the beautiful, pastoral towns of Flin Flon, Shamattawa, and Fort Severn.
Jita-Kyoei - Mutual Welfare and Benefit
Having heard of the improvements (and free heat) on offer from Alberta to towns in rural Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario, I wonder what the residents of Nova Scotia would begin to ponder? The cost of living there is low, but the cost of heating is high. The residents of Yarmouth have to drive 3 hours to the nearest major hospital in Halifax. Yarmouth, thats a nice, deep water coastal town, isn’t it?
Would the residents of these towns treat Alberta to even a tenth of the sycophantic grovelling bestowed on Amazon when was searching, like the bachelor, for a town in which to build its new HQ? Perhaps an expanded Alberta too, would need an HQ2.
Come to think of it, why isn’t there already a natural gas pipeline from Edmonton to St. John, New Brunswick? It’s a little funny how all of the businesses in that town all have the same name. I wonder if those folks also own the newspapers?